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Chelsea vs Nott'm Forest

Sat 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Chelsea win: 48.6%

Draw: 23.3%

Nott'm Forest win: 28.0%

Predicted: Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.41

More corners: Chelsea (66.2% home / 33.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Chelsea

Yes

Probability Chelsea wins or draws: 63.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Chelsea Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 28%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (64.0% model probability) High

Corners Chelsea (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Chelsea win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.